Global Macro Trading: Rates, Currencies and the Cycle

Global macro is the style of the large trading desks that position for changes in interest rates, currencies and growth. Its ideas are open to any careful trader, because the inputs are public: central bank statements, economic data and market prices. What separates good macro trading from opinion is a precise view, a sized position and a point where the view is admitted to be wrong.

What is global macro trading?

Trading on views about economies and policy, usually through rates, currencies, equity indices and commodities. A macro trader might expect a central bank to cut faster than markets price, and buy bonds or sell the currency to express it. The course teaches the main links between policy, data and prices, and how to test your own views against them.

How do interest rates affect currencies?

Higher rates, or rates expected to rise, tend to attract money into a currency, while lower rates tend to push it out. The link breaks down when markets are frightened and money moves to safety. The course has you track these relationships in public data for the major currencies.

Who is this course for?

Traders who want to understand the forces behind the market and trade them with a plan. No programming is needed.

What you will be able to do

• Explain how central bank policy, inflation and growth move rates, currencies and equity indices.
• Read the yield curve, real rates and rate expectations from public data.
• Turn a macro view into a trade with an instrument, a size, a catalyst and a point where the view is wrong.
• Keep a macro journal and judge your views against what markets did.

Syllabus, module by module

1. Central banks

   Policy rates, balance sheets and forward guidance, and how markets price the next move.

2. Rates and the curve

   Yields, the yield curve, real rates and what an inverted curve has meant in the past.

3. Currencies

   Rate differentials, carry, risk appetite and the trading of the major currency pairs.

4. Commodities and inflation

   Oil, metals and food prices, and how they feed into inflation and policy.

5. The business cycle

   Leading indicators, recessions and how asset classes have behaved through each phase.

6. Building a macro trade

   Expressing a view, choosing the instrument, sizing it and defining when the view is wrong.

How the certificate is earned

Weekly macro notes and two graded problem sets: a written macro outlook with three proposed trades, and a twelve-week simulated macro book with a review against the outlook. On a pass you receive the Course certificate in Global Macro Trading, issued by the Institute with a verification code. Read how certification works.

Before you start

News Trading: Earnings, Data Releases and Events.

• News Trading: Earnings, Data Releases and Events